Guns and Bullets and Statistics, oh my

Instapundit has already commented on this piece of silliness, Gun Show Fantasies, but I figure I might as well put in my two cents worth.

Kristoff trots out the usual stereotypes about gun show participants, then trots out the standard statistics, which look something like this:

In 1999, there were 828,874 gun-related deaths in the United States - over 80 deaths every day. (Source: Hoyert DL, Arias E, Smith BL, Murphy SL, Kochanek, KD. Deaths: Final Data for 1999. National Vital Statistics Reports. 2001;49 (8).)

Obvious typo, in that they meant to write 28,874 gun-related deaths, which yields the 80 deaths a day, which gives Kristoff's one every twenty minute claim. However, if you're going to quote anti-gun stats, don't forget:

In 1999, 58% of all gun deaths were suicides, and 38% were homicides.(SOURCE: Hoyert DL, Arias E, Smith BL, Murphy SL, Kochanek, KD. Deaths: Final Data for 1999. National Vital Statistics Reports. 2001;49 (8).)

(Both of these are courtesy of a fact page at Gun Control Network.)

If you exclude suicide the overall figure drops to 12,127. (Why exclude suicide? Because those people killed themselves, of course. You could argue that no gun, no suicide, but the research on that is still out.) So, accepting the numbers you get that in 1999, 10,972 gun-related deaths were homicides. Where's my calculator...? Ah, here we go. Doing the math means that if you have a total figure 28,874 deaths, subtract suicides, subtract homicides, leaving you with...1,155 gun-related deaths that weren't homicides and weren't suicides. Hmm, so we assume those are "accidental"?

(Wait a moment, the FBI Uniform Crime Report for 1999 says there were a total of 12,658 homicides, with 8,259 involving the use of firearms. I...I am confused, because these other fine folk say that there were 10,972 gun-related homicides that year. Where does the discrepancy come from? Darn, tricky things these statistics. Obviously Disraeli was right. Now, back to the show....)

Anyway, Kristoff's one death every twenty minutes now shrinks to about 1.25 an hour. Without seeing the raw figures, it's hard to justify even that figure, because how many of those are "justifiable" homicides? (Oops, there are those pesky numbers from the FBI Uniform Crime Report for 1999, which says that some 291 justifiable homicides by police officers, and another 154 done by private citizens, both via firearm. Let's not mix apples and oranges, though, since we've already seen that the figures from the anti-gun crowd don't agree with the FBI's.) And where are the numbers for self-defense? Last, even Join Together, another anti-gun organization, notes that gun deaths continue to decline:

New data from the federal Centers for Disease Control show gun deaths continue to decline in the U.S., especially among children and teenagers. The 1999 gun-death toll was 28,874 persons, the first time the figure has dropped below 30,000 since national statistics on gun deaths were first kept in 1979.

Noting that the number of gun-related deaths is on the decline is not conducive with the focus of the article, of course, so out comes the guise that it's an "anti-terrorist" measure to require Congress to close the dreaded Gun Show Loophole.

The problem--if you're anti-gun--is that most uses of a gun in self-defense don't result in the gun ever going "bang." That is, brandishing the weapon is usually sufficient to stop any threat, perceived or real. Each time this happens is a very real use of a gun for self-defense that never gets counted by anyone remotely anti-gunnish. The frustration--if you're anti-gun--is that crime is dropping, gun-related deaths (of all types) are dropping, all despite more states issuing conceal carry permits. And the horror--if you're anti-gun--are the recent reports that gun-related crimes are on the rise in that paragon of virtue--if you're anti-gun--England. Obviously a new boogeyman must be found.