Stating the obvious

Sasha Castel pointed out this UPI article which contains this lovely quote:

"When the Europeans demand some sort of veto over American actions, or want us to subordinate our national interest to a UN mandate, they forget that we do not think their track record is too good," a senior U.S. diplomat said recently in private. "The Europeans told us they could win the Balkans wars all on their own. Wrong. They told us that the Russians would never accept National Missile Defense. Wrong. They said the Russians would never swallow NATO enlargement. Wrong. They told us 20 years ago that détente was the way to deal with what we foolishly called the Evil Empire. Wrong again. They complain about our Farm Bill when they are the world's biggest subsidizers of their agriculture. The Europeans are not just wrong; they are also hypocrites. They are wrong on Kyoto, wrong on Arafat, wrong on Iraq -- so why should we take seriously a single word they say?"

Which reminded me of a conversation I had with a friend last week, on what would happen if (when) we go into Iraq. His contention was that we couldn't win, that we'd be stuck there for years, that "those people have been fighting for a thousand years."

Fine, said I, but bear in mind that for over a decade, no one has accurately predicted how the US military would behave in a fight. The little actions aside, such as Somalia, look at the larger actions. Gulf War of '91, everyone said we'd get creamed. Saddam's Republican Guard were combat-hardened, experienced desert fighters. Thousands of casualties, years of struggle, the futility of war!

Result: Exceptionally low Allied casualties, Iraq booted solidly out of Kuwait, all done in record time.

Now, Afghanistan: the horrid winter, the trained, experienced, hardened, etc., mountain fighters of the Taliban. They'd slaughter us in those mountains. Bloodbath. Horror! Years of continuous fighting.

Result: Taliban go bye-bye, US casualties that you can count on your hands. We will be there for years, but that's because it'll probably take a decade or so to build up an infrastructure, economy, and a new national government. Skirmishes here and there, certainly, but nothing like what was predicted.

And so it goes. When I hear descriptions of a long, bloody struggle in Iraq if (when) we attack, I am reminded of those who complained long and hard that the US military was always preparing to fight yesterday's battles, rather than tomorrow's. Then I see how we perform in actual combat, and realize that Those In Charge have taken that warning -- and lesson -- to heart. The protestors have not. In short, they have no idea how we'll hit Iraq. Neither does Saddam. And that's the key.